Are we prepared for big shakes?

Less than a year after it was struck by a massive 9.0 magnitude earthquake that destroyed tens of thousands of lives and homes, researchers in Japan have predicted yet another big earthquake in its capital within the next few years. The government and the people are already beginning to prepare, though the ‘casualty impact’ of it cannot be established.

This must come as a warning for Bhutan too. A country sitting on the tectonic crossroads of Indian and Eurasian plates, Bhutan is prone to earthquake much as other countries on the Himalayan belt are. Maybe even more! But, are we prepared for the next seismic wave that might visit us anytime? Do we have the means to predict when we are going to be hit by another devastating shock? Most important question of all, are we even worried about it?

We have experienced seismic activities recurrently for the past few years that wrecked our homes and public facilities to dust and rubbles, stunning us with terror each time the horror took us totally off guard. Casualties of the recent earthquakes might have been low compared to those suffered by other countries, but that was because the epicentres of the quakes weren’t in Bhutan. One shouldn’t forget that 6.9 on the Richter scale is not a mere number. Across populated areas, it can be destructive, awfully so at times. Well, we have seen it: the September 2011 earthquake damaged over 7,000 homes and government structures, though only one human death was reported. What would have happened had the epicentre been in Bhutan?

It is not hard to imagine our cities and towns turned into sad moonscapes filled with filth and detritus left by the tremor. We were lucky that the epicentre wasn’t inside the country, but we might not have the same blessing the next time round. It is about time we seriously thought about ways to build quake-resistant structures and other safe alternatives. Sure we cannot predict or prevent earthquakes, but our homes could certainly be made more secure and resilient to shocks and vibrations.

Based on the available records, Bhutan has had 18 powerful earthquakes counting the September 18, 2011, earthquake that hit the western dzongkhags. Destructions effected by the tremor were considerable, both in terms of property loss and physiological terror unleashed on the people.

Considering the frequency and magnitude of earthquakes in the Alpide belt that extends from Java to the Atlantic through the Himalayas, improvement in the construction of buildings in the urban centres and self-built small homes in the villages is long overdue. We cannot whine for the need to improve our building construction after every earthquake and forget about it soon after the shock is gone. We must begin in earnest to build sturdier structures.

We need to build stronger institutional capacity, both at national and local levels. Safety tips don’t help much. We must set clear definition of the roles and responsibilities of the institutions concerned and establish better communication and coordination mechanisms. We have guideline that provides well established construction practices to improve the earthquake resisting capacity of non-engineered stone masonry buildings. But architects say that most Bhutanese builders do not go with the guide. Our buildings and concrete structures are therefore not shock resilient.

It is important that we must set priorities, carry out routine risk assessment studies and develop strategic land-use management and planning based on hazard assessments and risk mapping. Because Bhutan is situated on the fragile geological environment, effective early warning systems are necessary.  Earthquakes can trigger glacial outburst floods, of which we are all too familiar. Also, we must increase education and public awareness on disaster risk management and develop a comprehensive system to maintain proper records of disasters.

But then, as yet, we do not even have a detailed seismic micro-zonation of the country to locate under which seismic zone Bhutan falls, which is all the more worrying. Researchers say that since the north-eastern parts of India adjoining Bhutan fall under the seismically most active zone, the threat of major earthquakes in Bhutan is ever present. The question is – how prepared are we for the tremors?

By Jigme Wangchuk