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Bhutan’s road to Copenhagen

18 December 2009

As the climate change summit in Copenhagen ends today, our reporter Metho Dema looks at Bhutan’s place in the summit’s overall picture

Five years ago, during this time of the year, frost covered the grounds in the early mornings and made life hard for school goers. Exam time would be an excruciating battle between the cold pen and numb fingers. Today, many people are asking where the early morning frost is, and where the slippery icy paths and roads are. Although, there are no hard scientific data to confirm climate change in Bhutan, there are obvious signs of change in weather patterns.

Meteorological data over the last six years show that Bhutan has become warmer and wetter. The nationwide data maintained by meteorology section of the department of energy show an annual increase in temperature and rainfall. They show that, in the last six years, there has been an increasing trend in erratic precipitation and monsoon patterns across the country.

Undoubtedly, climate change today is the biggest challenge for the civilized world. That is why, the climate change summit in Copenhagen, Denmark, which concludes today, was dubbed as the most important dialogue since the Second World War – the last chance to save the world, “the battle to redefine humanity”.

From dry lands in Ladakh, India, to the dying pine forest in Colorado, USA, to the fast retreating glaciers in Bhutan, the world is experiencing dramatic signs of climate change.

So what does Copenhagen climate change summit mean to the Bhutanese? The answer varies from cynicism to optimism to gross ignorance. “It is just another contribution to climate change itself, useless and hopeless. Copenhagen dubbed as hopenhagen for the summit has become a hopeless haven,” said Karma Yeshey, a graduate intern in the National Environment Commission. Some people feel otherwise. “It is an admirable stand the global community is taking to save our planet, if it is still not too late,” said Norbu Wangchuk, a consultant. “Although many experts are skeptical about a positive outcome, the mere fact that many leaders are in one place is a good start.” Another graduate said, “I don’t have any idea about it.”

The climate change talks in Copenhagen are technically known as the 15th Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) – often abbreviated as COP15. It marks the start of work on a new global agreement. The delegates from 193 countries were in the Danish capital for the past two weeks with the hope of leaving with a political agreement on the outlines of the new deal.

The Copenhagen talks fall within the framework of the UNFCCC, established at the Rio de Janeiro Earth Summit in 1992. In 1997, the UNFCCC initiated the Kyoto Protocol.

But according to critics, neither of these agreements can sufficiently curb the growth in greenhouse gas emission to avoid the climate impacts projected by the Inter- governmental Panel on Climate Change, formed by over hundred well known scientists.

In particular, the Kyoto Protocol’s targets for reducing emissions apply only to a small set of countries excluding the United States, and expire in 2012.

Studies predict that the temperature of the earth may rise by maximum 4-6 degrees by the end of the century if the current emission trend continues. Avoiding this would require limiting the temperature rise to 2 C above pre-industrial levels – the widely accepted target for avoiding irreversible climate change. Hence, governments, organizations and individual participants are looking to the Copenhagen treaty to curb the growth in greenhouse gas emissions enough to keep the world within that limit. Basically, if a legally binding treaty does not come out of COP15, the world may face catastrophic climate change consequences.

However, experts and critics still believe that the emission cut promised by many countries is not enough to limit the rise by 2 C. Bhutan is one of the countries most vulnerable to climate change. A report released in Copenhagen this week included Thimphu city among 15 cities of the world most vulnerable to the impact of climate change. It would mean that Bhutan will be among some of the first countries to be affected by climate change if immediate action in terms of mitigation and adaptation is not taken.

Like Bhutan, some of the most vulnerable countries in the world are also among the least emitter of green house gases (GHG). Bhutan’s recent estimate of GHG emission is around 1.5 million tones of carbon against a sequestration amount of 6.3 million tonnes, according to the draft GHG inventory report, 2000. “This leaves us with a net emission of -4.7 million tonnes making us one of the few countries in the world to have a negative carbon emission,” reads the declaration made by Bhutan and presented in the conference by Agriculture Minister Dr Pema Jamtsho.

The main focus for Bhutan in COP15 is securing finance for mitigation of and adaptation to climate change. It is estimated that the developing countries may require about US $ 10 billion a year for mitigation and adaptation projects.

Bhutan would require funds to mitigate the threats posed by glacial lake outburst flooding, especially by the likes of Thorthormi Lake. The natural dam walls between Thorthormi Lake and Rapstreng Lake, two of the most dangerous lakes in Bhutan, is only 32.5 metres thick at the crest and is getting thinner every year. The mitigation project, which started this year, is expected to extend over a period of three years costing a total of Nu 130 millions.

Yeshey Penjor, Deputy Chief Environment Officer of National Environment Commission, who had been appointed as the incumbent head of the delegation, at technical level, to COP15, had told Observer earlier, “If COP15 failed to come out with a legally binding agreement for substantial emission reductions by developed countries beyond 2012 and if developed countries were not legally bound to provide financial and technological support to developing countries, the world community would continue facing climate change risk, potentially in an accelerated form.” He said that, for countries like Bhutan, vulnerability would be intensified. “We will face daunting challenges with shortage of resources and capability to combat climate change impacts and adapt to such consequences,” he added.

In the summit, developing countries have accused inpicturedustrialised nations of going back on their commitment to provide enough financial aid to fight climate change which may have profound affect on Bhutan. The past two weeks at the summit has been anything but smooth. The rift between developing countries and the developed countries were more prominent than ever. The developing countries accused the host of being biased. Talks were halted for five hours as the African bloc accused UN of trying to kill Koyoto, and poor nations threaten a climate deal showdown a few days before the high-level phase of the talks began on Tuesday this week. Even as the high-level phase of the talk began, many core issues like size of emission cut by developed countries, process of raising and disbursement of finance, limit of global temperature rise, had not been resolved.

US President Barack Obama is due to join the summit today on it final day. However, some critics believe that, even though a legally binding deal may not come out of it, something positive may. As The Economist newspaper puts it, “A political agreement which would be turned into a legally binding agreement when the fate of America’s climate-change legislation has been decided”. According to most Bhutanese, a deal is possible but the problem is, like everything else, the climate talk is lost in the political stage show of the super powers.

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